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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."