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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd